Rashee Rice Scored in Week 1 — But Two Targets Should Make Fantasy Managers Nervous

Rashee Rice scored a touchdown in Week 1.

If you only looked at the fantasy total, you could convince yourself everything was fine.

It wasn't.

Rice caught both of his targets for 19 yards and the score.

Two targets.

That's the number fantasy managers should care about entering Sunday night against Indianapolis.

The Touchdown Hid the Problem

Touchdowns can cover a lot of fantasy problems for one week.

They cannot create a sustainable role by themselves.

Rice finished Week 1 with a 7.4% target share and a 10% first-read share.

Both numbers were well below what fantasy managers became accustomed to when Rice was functioning as one of Patrick Mahomes' primary receivers.

Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce were ahead of him in the first-read hierarchy.

That is more concerning than the 19 receiving yards.

The Good News: Rice Is Healthy Enough to Play

Rice dealt with a knee issue during the week but is off the final injury report.

That removes one possible explanation for another limited role Sunday.

Fantasy managers do not have to worry about whether Rice will be active.

Now we get to evaluate the football role itself.

Was Week 1 simply a difficult matchup and a strange distribution of targets?

Or has Kansas City's passing hierarchy actually changed?

Week 2 should give us a better answer.

Indianapolis Is a Better Spot

Kansas City faced a difficult Denver defense in Week 1.

The Colts present a softer matchup.

Indianapolis allowed opposing receivers to create efficient production in the opener, and Kansas City should have more ways to manufacture completions.

That is good for Rice because his game has never depended entirely on winning deep.

Kansas City can use him on drags, crossers and quick throws that allow him to create after the catch.

Those are also the types of throws that can quickly restore his PPR floor.

What I Need to See Sunday Night

Five targets would make me feel much better.

Six or seven would nearly erase the Week 1 concern.

The exact yardage matters less.

I want Mahomes looking for Rice early and Andy Reid designing touches that put the ball in his hands.

First-read share is especially important.

If Worthy and Kelce again dominate the designed passing game while Rice survives on two or three opportunities, fantasy managers will need to lower expectations.

If Rice returns to being a frequent first read, Week 1 becomes an outlier.

Start or Sit?

I am still starting Rice in most leagues.

The combination of Mahomes, the matchup and Rice's history gives him enough upside to remain in WR2 territory.

But this is not the automatic decision it would have been if he had opened the season with seven or eight targets.

If you have unusual receiver depth, there are scenarios where a player with a more secure Week 2 workload can be considered.

In most normal leagues, though, Rice stays in.

Don't Chase the Touchdown

This is the biggest lesson.

Rice's Week 1 fantasy score was better than his usage.

Fantasy managers should never let a touchdown stop them from investigating a role.

A player can score on two targets one week.

He cannot reliably build WR2 production on two targets every week.

The volume has to come back.

The FF Draft Boards Take

Rashee Rice's Week 1 touchdown was useful.

His two targets were concerning.

The good news is that he is off the injury report and gets a much friendlier Week 2 matchup against Indianapolis.

Start him in most leagues.

Then watch the usage.

If Mahomes starts looking Rice's way five, six or seven times again, the panic can end quickly.

If Rice remains a two- or three-target player while Worthy and Kelce control the passing game, the touchdown will have hidden a real change in Kansas City's offense.

Sunday night should tell us which version we're dealing with.